Monsoon Breaking: Active Monsoon Conditions Likely Over Most Parts of Northwest India During Next 4-5 Days

Positive India:New Delhi:
The Monsoon trough is active and south of its normal position at mean sea level. It is likely to shift gradually northwards during next 4-5 days.
A cyclonic circulation over southeast Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood in lower & middle tropospheric levels.
The shear zone now runs roughly along 20°N over Indian region between 3.1 & 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting southwards with height.
The off-shore trough at mean sea level now runs along South Gujarat to Kerala coast.

A cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra in lower tropospheric levels.
Forecast & Warnings:

West & Central India

Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over the region during next 5 days.
Very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Gujarat Region on 29th; Saurashtra & Kutch on 29th & 30th; Konkan & Goa on 01st August; East Madhya Pradesh during 31st July- 02nd August; ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh on 01st & 02nd August, , West Madhya Pradesh on 02nd August.
Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat Region, West Madhya Pradesh during 29th July- 02nd August, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh during 30th July – 02nd August, Vidarbha on 29th July, 01st & 02nd August.
Northwest India

Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and East Rajasthan; scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and West Rajasthan during next 5 days.

Isolated very heavy rainfall also likely over East Rajasthan on 29th; Uttarakhand during 29th July- 02nd August, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad on 31st July & 01st August, Haryana-Chandigarh, West Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan on 31st July.

Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand during 29th July- 02nd August, Punjab during 29th July- 01st August, Haryana-Chandigarh during 30th July- 02nd August, Uttar Pradesh during 30th July- 01st August, West Rajasthan during 29th – 31st July.
South Peninsular India:

Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over Coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Kerala & Mahe and Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Interior Karnataka and isolated to scattered rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana and Rayalaseema during next 5 days.
Very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe on 29th; Coastal & South Interior Karnataka on 29th & 30th July.

Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on 29th; North Interior Karnataka on 29th & 30th; Kerala & Mahe, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka during 29th July – 01st August.
East & Northeast India

Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning very likely over East India and Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Northeast India during next 5 days.

Very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 29th July- 01st August, Arunachal Pradesh on 01st & 02nd August, Odisha on 31st July & 01st August.

Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Odisha, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 29th July – 02nd August, Arunachal Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 29th, 30th July 01st August & 02nd August, Assam & Meghalaya on 29th, 30th; Jharkhand during 30th July- 01st August, Gangetic West Bengal on 29th, 31st July & 01 August.